If she is chosen to head the World Trade Organization, former Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, an experienced development economist, would make a broken institution relevant again. She has the gravitas to build bridges between the US and China, on the one hand, and between the WTO and Africa, on the other.
The selection of the World Trade Organization’s next director-general has entered its final phase, with two candidates left in the running: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance and economy minister and a former managing director of the World Bank, and Yoo Myung-hee, South Korea’s trade minister. In view of the WTO’s current challenges, Okonjo-Iweala is the better choice.
The WTO faces two major crises: an institutional crisis caused by the great-power rivalry between the United States and China, and a crisis of globalization – of which the WTO, as the overseer of global trade rules, is a major symbol.
Sino-American trade tensions have paralyzed the organization, with the US blocking the appointment of new judges to its appellate body, which rules on trade disputes among member countries. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis, another source of great-power tension, has prompted many firms to consider reshoring production in order to reduce their reliance on pandemic-hit Chinese suppliers, thus disrupting the global supply chains that are critical to world trade.
If chosen to head the WTO, Okonjo-Iweala has the leadership credentials to restore relevance to a broken organization. The WTO needs a tested global leader who is well versed in the role of trade in development, rather than a trade bureaucrat who might lack the broader view. With her experience at the World Bank (where the US and China are major players) and as a reformist finance minister in Nigeria, the Harvard and MIT-educated Okonjo-Iweala has a rare combination of political leadership skills and proven technocratic competence.
The WTO needs a leader who can build consensus, because the organization’s design doesn’t allow for top-down leadership. And Okonjo-Iweala has the gravitas to build bridges between the US and China, on the one hand, and between the WTO and Africa, on the other.
Despite being widely regarded as the world’s next frontier for investment and development, Africa is essentially an onlooker in the world trading system, accounting for a meager 2% of global exports. Although the continent is a growing market for the products of globalization, it does not benefit much from world trade, owing to its limited presence in globalized value chains. Instead, Africa trades mainly in agricultural goods and natural resources, whereas most world trade is in manufacturing and services.
Africa needs to trade with the world on the same basis that other regions do, but the global trading system is keeping the continent underdeveloped. In particular, industrialized countries levy low tariffs on imports of African raw commodities, but higher ones on finished African goods – higher, in fact, than for similar goods imported from other regions.
Today’s world trade is thus rigged against Africa. To help redress this imbalance, the WTO’s special and differential treatment provisions for least-developed countries should permit African governments to provide temporary tariff protection for infant domestic manufacturers within WTO rules. We could call such necessary and temporary measures “smart protectionism.”
More generally, it is time to make the WTO work for all member countries, not just for the great powers or countries whose global economic success was built on trade protectionism but now seek to “kick away the ladder” for developing economies. This structural rebalancing, which will expand the global sphere of prosperity, is best mediated by a WTO leader who is not from a major trading power.
Furthermore, African countries currently do not use the WTO’s dispute-settlement system, because they are too weak to take on donor countries, whether Western powers or China. So, Chinese products, for example, have been “dumped” in African markets with no consequences. Okonjo-Iweala has the skills to build a consensus on giving Africa a fairer shake in the global trading system.
Much will also depend on the outcome of the US presidential election on November 3. President Donald Trump believes that China has gamed global trade to the detriment of US national interests, while China thinks America has rejected the WTO’s rules-based regime. Resolving this tension will require both powers to find the political will to compromise. It will also require a global development leader such as Okonjo-Iweala, who has served on international development commissions with current and former heads of government, to facilitate a rapprochement. But regardless of who wins on November 3, the COVID-19 pandemic will inexorably weaken globalization as the US and other countries seek to shorten and localize supply chains.
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